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The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 6.4 per cent in 2024-25 against 8.2 per cent in the previous fiscal year

The projection is lower than the recent Reserve Bank estimate of 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal year ending March 2025.
India’s economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25, mainly on account of poor showing by the manufacturing and services sector, according to government data released on Tuesday.
The gross domestic product (GDP) rate of 6.4 per cent will be the lowest since the Covid year (2020-21) when the country witnessed a negative growth of 5.8 per cent. It was 9.7 per cent in 2021-22; 7 per cent in 2022-23; and 8.2 per cent in the last fiscal ended March 2024.
The first advance estimates of National Income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) is lower than the 6.6 per cent projected by the Reserve Bank in December 2024. It is also a tad lower than the finance ministry’s initial projection of 6.5-7 per cent.
The advance estimates will be used in preparation for the Union Budget to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Lok Sabha on February 1.
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head – Research & Outreach, ICRA, said, “The NSO’s FAE for India’s GDP and GVA growth of 6.4% each in FY2025, is slightly lower than our forecast of 6.5% each, led by mining, manufacturing, and services.”
Nayar added that the NSO has effectively implicitly pegged the growth in the GDP and GVA for H2 FY2025 at 6.7% and 6.6%, respectively, “a mild 10-20 bps lower than our projections for the same.”
“In our view, the GDP growth in FY2026 will be crucially influenced by global uncertainties as well as domestic uncertainties, amidst considerable base effects. Benefitting from an anticipated capex push in the upcoming Budget, we project the GDP growth at 6.5% in FY2026.”
The manufacturing sector output is expected to decelerate to 5.3 per cent from a high of 9.9 per cent recorded in the previous fiscal, NSO said in the first advance estimates of National Income for 2024-25.
The services sector, comprising trade, hotels, transport and communications, is estimated to expand at 5.8 per cent against 6.4 per cent in 2023-24.
On the other hand, the farm sector is estimated to record a growth of 3.8 per cent in the current fiscal, up from 1.4 per cent in 2023-24.
“Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.4 per cent in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.2 per cent in Provisional Estimate (PE) of GDP for FY 2023-24,” NSO said.
Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7 per cent in 2024-25 over the growth rate of 9.6 per cent in 2023-24.
According to the data, nominal GDP (GDP at current prices) is estimated to attain a level of Rs 324.11 lakh crore in the year 2024-25 against Rs 295.36 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.7 per cent.
The size of the economy, as per the current estimates, is USD 3.8 trillion (@ Rs 85.7/USD) during 2024-25.
Further, the nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated to attain a level of Rs 292.64 lakh crore in 2024-25 against Rs 267.62 lakh crore in 2023-24, showing a growth rate of 9.3 per cent.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant prices has witnessed a growth rate of 7.3 per cent during 2024-25 over the growth rate of 4 per cent in the previous financial year.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Constant Prices has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.1 per cent compared to the growth rate of 2.5 per cent in the previous fiscal.
Key Highlights:
- Real GDP has been estimated to grow by 6.4% in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.2% in Provisional Estimate (PE) of GDP for FY 2023-24.
- Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.7% in FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 9.6% in FY 2023-24.
- Real GVA has grown by 6.4% in FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 7.2% in FY 2023-24.
- Nominal GVA has shown a growth rate of 9.3% in FY 2024-25 as compared to the growth rate of 8.5% in FY 2023-24.
- Real GVA of Agriculture and allied sector has been estimated to grow by 3.8% during 2024-25 as compared to the growth of 1.4% witnessed during the last year, i.e., 2023-24.
- Real GVA of ‘Construction’ sector and ‘Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services’ sector has been estimated to observe good growth rates of 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively during the FY 2024-25.
- Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at Constant Prices, has witnessed a growth rate of 7.3% during FY 2024-25 over the growth rate of 4.0% in the previous financial year.
- Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at Constant Prices, has rebounded to a growth rate of 4.1% as compared to the growth rate of 2.5% in the previous financial year.